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  • Writer's pictureEnyenaweh Research

The Potential Consequences of Increased Tax Burden on Nigeria's Vulnerable Population

Nigeria, Africa's most populous nation and largest economy stands at a critical juncture. Despite its vast natural resources and young, vibrant population, Nigeria grapples with high poverty and unemployment rates, compounded by endemic insecurity. These challenges, while significant, have provoked discussions around economic restructuring and fiscal policies, one of which is the proposed increase in the tax burden. However, this approach has potential consequences that we cannot ignore.

Economic Hardship

Increasing taxes during economic hardship could exacerbate the situation, further draining resources from those who are already struggling. This measure could push more people into extreme poverty in a country where nearly 40% of the population lives below the poverty line. Since most of Nigeria's workforce is employed in the informal sector and unemployment rates are already alarmingly high, increased taxation could further discourage business activities and hamper job creation.

Widening Inequality

Tax increases can widen the gap of income inequality. Often, these burdens fall disproportionately on the lower-income and middle-income classes, as they lack the financial sophistication to navigate around them or the political clout to influence tax policy. Unless care is taken to ensure progressive tax measures, where those with more capacity bear a larger share, increasing taxes could disproportionately affect those already facing economic challenges, widening Nigeria's existing inequality.

Insecurity and Social Unrest

Nigeria is plagued by varying degrees of insecurity, from kidnappings in the north to militant activities in the Niger Delta region. Increasing taxes, especially in a manner perceived as unfair or insensitive, could exacerbate social tensions and fuel more unrest. The frustration and discontent stemming from increased economic hardship can be a breeding ground for extremist narratives and activities, complicating security.

Weakening Public Trust

The Nigerian government has faced criticism regarding corruption and misuse of public funds. Adding to the tax burden without clear and visible improvements in public services or efforts to combat crime could erode public trust in government institutions. This erosion could lead to increased tax evasion, further shrinking the tax base and making it more difficult for the government to fund needed services and improvements.

A Look Ahead

It's not all gloom, though. Effective tax policy could provide resources for much-needed investments in infrastructure, education, and healthcare. However, care must be taken to implement tax increases progressively, ensuring those with the most significant capacity bear the most burden. A more efficient tax collection system and a relentless fight against corruption can help increase government revenue without overburdening the vulnerable population.

Moreover, the Nigerian government must prioritize improving the business environment to stimulate job creation and reduce unemployment rates. An economy with high employment is more resilient to tax increases, as more people have the resources to contribute to the tax base.


In conclusion, if not carefully implemented and paired with effective economic policies, an increase in tax burden could have significant negative consequences for Nigeria's most vulnerable populations. Policymakers must balance the need for increased revenue with the realities on the ground, ensuring that those who can least afford it are not disproportionately burdened. As Nigeria strives to overcome its economic challenges, let us remember that policies should work for the people, not against them. After all, a nation's most excellent resource is its people.

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